My buddy Dan has a post on probability here [LINK]. I confess I never fully grasped probability in this sense. With a single coin toss heads has 50% chance and tails has 50% of coming up. It follows that with 10 coin tosses you’d expect 50% heads, 50% tails, and as things tend to an infinite number of tosses, actual results get closer to 50/50.
But what are the chances of getting 10 heads in a row? Fairly low, right? (how low I’ve no idea). So if I do 9 consecutive coin tosses and each time I get a head, surely that means the odds of the 10th coin toss being a HEAD are pretty low and of being a TAIL have dramatically increased beyond 50%?
When you look at the toss in isolation it’s 50/50 but when taken as part of a series, do the preceding results have bearing on the outcome of the next throw?
Dan plz explain.